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October 22, 2007
NEWS
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Turkey in Search of a New Role in the Region
Kurdishaspect.com - By Handren Delan
Turkish parliament finally approved a motion put forward by the AK government to authorize military incursion into Southern Kurdistan, where Kurdistan Worker’s Party militants, known as the PKK, allegedly take a shelter. According to the officials from Ankara, this motion lasts one year and will legally lay down ground for the military to launch cross-border operations whenever it chooses. The motion seems highly targeted in that the military action is strictly aimed at flushing out the PKK rebels. The parliament’s authorization of military incursion on the surface might indicate that the country is victim of what they refer to as the ‘PKK terrorism’. Yet, it does not explain the whole picture. For any political observer with somewhat an extent of knowledge on Turkey’s history, there is more to the parliament’s overwhelming vote for government motion. Of course, the way Turkish Grand Assembly voted seemed much like a tribal unit, which takes a collective action, unlike a modern democratic parliament, where the voting on the issues of such magnificence becomes more competitive among power contenders.
As having explained in my previous article published on Kurdishaspect under the title (Turkey in Short Supply of Positive Image), the military interventionist policy has already failed. Turkish military and political establishment is certain that this policy, if pursued again, is doomed to failure. What on substance intrigued the mindset of certain circles within military and political elite is not simply the elimination of what they commonly refer to as the “PKK threat”. Highly at stake for Turkey is the strategic weight of the country in influencing the events of a larger region and particularly in Iraq.
From the historic perspective, Iraq has been a sphere of influence for Turkey since the creation of the new nation-states in the region. Before emergence of modern states in pre-world World 1, Iraq was ruled by the Ottomans. The small Sunni elite closely associated with the Ottoman Sultananat ruled the country. The enterprise of the Iraqi creation was imposed on the Ottomans who became defeated in the First World War. In the aftermath of the implementation of Churchillian project which established so-called nation-states, a totally new and alien political arrangement for the peoples of the Middle Eastern region, Iraq that was ruled by the tiny Sunni elite enjoyed a special relationship with Turkey. Turkey’s rulers regarded Iraq as their natural allies as long as Iraq’s policies worked in the direction of forming a buffer zone in the face of Iranians Shiites. Naturally the establishment of a Mesopotamian monster (Iraq) worked in favor of forming a balance of power between Iran, a pro-dominantly Shiites state, and Turkey, a dominant Sunni state in the region.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003, which removed the Baath clique from power, exposed Iraq to the historical configuration. In other words, removal of the Baathist dictatorial clique opened the Pandora box. With the Baathist regime gone, Shiites, a majority of the population, led the newly established Iraqi state institutions, which were historically dominated by a small Sunni clique since it’s inception. Essentially, these developments landed Turkey in a difficult position because it lost most of the political and diplomatic clout it enjoyed during the period the Baathist Party ruled Iraq.
The domination of the Iraqi state institutions by the Shiites who were natural allies of Iran during the eight year Iran-Iraq war further alienated Turkish diplomatic and political weight on the issues facing Iraq. This spelled out a major challenge for Turks regarding the Iraqi state as their sphere of influence. Uncomfortable in their skin with Turkish military presence, the Iranians most recently made it clear that they would support political solution between the Kurds and Turkey. Given the body language of Iranians in diplomatic terms, Iranians would overtly oppose Turkey's military strategy in Iraq. Conflict of interests between Iran and Turkey seem to come to the fore as a potential thaw in their already tenuous relations. The Shiite-Sunni fault line which is responsible for fueling much of the conflict in this region seems to create another wedge between Iranians and Turkey when it comes to Iraq. Of course, Turkey is aware of the fact that the Iranians and the US are chief players in affecting the course of Iraqi politics. This assumption coupled with militarist mental frame within Turkey’s army might have driven Turkey’s most recent threats.
As far as Turkey’s strategic interests is concerned, Iraq serves as their pivotal spot in influencing a larger region . But it is imperative that Turkey can not influence the course of Iraqi politics in a hostile environment. It is undeniable that the US and Iran are main players on the Iraqi question. But this is not all achieved through wrestling military muscle as Turkey does for the time being. In the case of former (the US) it may be the military presence which gives her an exclusive say on the Iraqi developments while in the case of latter (Iran) it is solely the soft power and natural kinship which would place her in the pivotal position. In this regard the Western media commentators also make a serious error of judgment when seeing Iran’s growing influence in Iraq through arming the militant Shiites. In actual fact, Iranians have every reason to support the current political setting in Iraq, no matter how the new rulers are close to the US.
Should Turkey launch military incursion into the Southern Kurdistan, it is most likely to set up a security condone within the territory of Southern Kurdistan proper. Turkey has its troops already stationed in the region and it may boost this force under the pretext of the PKK’s presence. The question arising here is what can Turkey achieve militarily or politically? By some accounts, Turkey will fail to achieve a tangible success in containing the PKK’s activities. But from political standpoint, Turkey will gain some more ground in influencing the developments in Southern Kurdistan and Iraq at large .
Turkey, currently a marginal voice on Iraq and the broader region, will shape the core political direction of Iraq. In a more strict sense, Turkey’s larger presence in Iraq is about the soul of its foreign policy direction and projection of the country’s influence in a larger region. Is it that easy to achieve? It does not seem so. These policies are deeply embedded in Turkey’ s political psyche. Policies centered on power politics assumption rather than a well-calculated vision that corresponds with presently emerged realities in the region leads Turkey further into a much deeper crisis. It pretty much looks like the emotions run high on the Turkey’s side.
Turkey has a lot to learn from its past experience. When military incursion fails to enjoy international legitimacy or support, it will be doomed to failure as already happened in the case of Cyprus, a risky policy based on misleading assumptions. Here the kernel of the argument is Turkey tends to seek a larger role in the still-emerging political order in the region, but the means it utilizes to achieve it’s ends on a long term basis do not land Turkey in a position, reconcilable to it’s broader interests in the region and the world at large. Turkey is certainly a core state in this region with large political leverage and diplomatic clout. In resorting to a militaristic mindset to address its security concern with the PKK or Southern Kurdistan leadership, Turkey would further undermine its natural and hard-earned clout and also its prospects for the EU membership. Sticking to its gun, Turkey seems to have lost a sense of realism.
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