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November 18, 2007
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Consequences of a Turkish Invasion into Southern Kurdistan
Kurdishaspect.com - Lokman Ablakhi
Turkey is using PKK as an excuse to invade Southern Kurdistan, but Turkey knows very well that dozens of the previous incursions have not eliminated the PKK and this one will not achieve Turkey's objective either. Turkey has been one of the main trouble makers in the region and for the last eight decades it has denied the rights of its minorities such as: Kurds, the Armenians, the Arabs and the Greeks.
Considering Turkey’s estimated billions of dollars in profits from investments in Southern Kurdistan, destabilizing the region will have great impact on the Turkish economy. The loss will out weigh the gains. The only beneficiary would be the Turkish Military that has not learned from its unsuccessful past incursions.
Regional countries like Iran and Syria will benefit a great deal from the war because it might weaken Turkey. While Iran is competing to become the front runner in regional power, this military operation may help Iran to become the most powerful country in the region. If Turkey wants to hunt down every single PKK fighter this will be a long war; so far it has been going on for more than two decades and probably will last much longer. I don't believe that Turkey's dream to eradicate the PKK will ever come true. The History of the Kurds in the region shows their determination to fight for their rights no matter how long it takes or how much it costs.
Regional countries like Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf Countries, that secretly supported Turkey's invasion of Southern Kurdistan, will also be losers and they will be under continuous threat from the Shiite ruled Iran.
Al-Qaeda and its associates will welcome such an invasion and a war, because it would create more chaos in the region, especially for Iraq and for the USA.
To stop Turkey's aggression and to defend Southern Kurdistan, the Kurdish leaders should be willing to pull out the thousands of the Peshmargas, who, along with the U.S. troops, are fighting to stabilize Baghdad, Salahadin, Mosul, Samara and Diala. This would make it easier for Al-Qaeda and the other insurgent groups to destabilize Iraq.
This could also cause an increase in U.S. casualties, which could lead to a U.S. withdrawal, leaving Iraq at the mercy of Al-Qaeda and the Shiite militias.
With a power vacuum left behind in the absence of the US Military, Iran will become the most powerful country in the region and would act as a new regional superpower. It would then be more likely that Iran would gang up with China, Russia and India against the U.S.
Furthermore, invading Southern Kurdistan is not in the interest of Turkey, for it would be a huge burden on the Turkish economy. Turkey’s economy has seen significant improvement since the beginning of the reform during Erdogan's ruling era. One of the reasons for this improvement is the recognition of the Kurdish problem within Turkey. The other reason Turkey’s economy has benefited from this reform is due to the establishment of many profitableTurkish businesses within Southern Kurdistan.
The fact remains that a peaceful dialog with PKK and the rest of the Kurdish leaders in Northern Kurdistan would end the crisis once and for all. Open mind and open heart with constructive and positive attitude is the only way to resolve the Kurdish issue inside Turkey.
The outcome of such a peaceful dialog will lead to a more stable, prosperous and respected Turkey. Only then, Turkey can prove to the world that they are truly a democratic country and deserve to be part of the European Union. This way Turkey can maintain its status as a key player in the region and the world.
If Turkey decides to choose war over peace, the outcome will be a catastrophe for Turkey and the entire region.
The Kurdish oppression in modern history started when the U.K. and its allies divided Kurdistan and forcefully annexed them to what is now called, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. Since then the Kurds have been denied basic human rights and have had experienced all kinds of cruelties: genocide, ethnic cleansing, destruction of their economies infrastructure and destruction of thousands of their villages and towns at the hands of the ruling regimes in those countries.
It is the International Community's responsibility to stop Turkey, a country that has massacred more than 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 in a horrific and genocidal campaign. We can not stand by and watch the Turkish military repeat it’s horrific genocidal campaign over and over again.
I hope that the International Community has learned a lesson from the past, that appeasement only encouraged Hitler to bully and invade the neighboring countries which led to World War II, and resulted in the holocaust of millions of innocent Jews and the slaughtering of tens of millions of people.
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Lokman Ablakhi is a Civil Engineer and a Kurdish Activist.
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